Result: -7 units, bet lost
Vienna gives way to one of the most anticipated friendly games on Tuesday as Austria will host Brazil. Both teams are in good form, with Austria having improved tremendously in the last years, but without their main star David Alaba. Brazil are backed by the bookies to continue their unbeaten run and win once more.
There is no a head to head game between the two nations in recent history, which does not take away from the fact that Brazil under Dunga are different from the one that flunked the World Cup tournament which they hosted. They are more careful in the defense even if they are still without Thiago Silva who has complained about the fact of not being asked about Neymar taking the reins of the team while he still nurses his injury.
Austria sold out the match in just one day, and the hosts will try to capitalize on the good form they are in following the 1-0 win over Russia during the EURO 2016 qualifiers. Okotie scored the only goal on the 78 the minute and for this match he has 3.50 odds to score. Austria continues to remain unbeaten in 2014, and while Arnautovic, Fuchs and Janko could be your other choices in the goalscorer market, the question is whether Austria will be able to withstand against a team that did not concede a goal in their last five games while scoring at least two in the last three?
Dunga might have rejuvenated Brazil to try and erase all traces of the World Cup, but they still rely too much on Neymar, who managed to score seven goals in Brazil’s last five matches, four of which came in the friendly against Japan. Brazil is still tipped to be one of the best and strongest teams in the world, they are ranked 6th now, and while they might see this particular game as a mere training session, Austria are the team to rip the benefits as they will get more playing experience that will allow them space to continue to impress on international stage regardless of the result Brazil’s defense is looking stronger now with David Luiz, Miranda, and Filipe Luiz, which adds to the factors of why Brazil has been given 1.40 odds to win outright, a draw has 4.50 odds, and an Austria win has 7.50 odds. Over 2.5 goals has 1.65 odds, Brazil to score in the first 15 minutes 4.00, Austria 9.00, and if Austria get to score we’re going to hope it’s Okotie so that our 5 units bet on the reverse wincast market of Okotie to score and Brazil to win with 26.00 odds from William Hill will end up being a winning one.
This Sunday, Belgium aim to take the lead in group B as they get ready to host the current group leaders Wales. The visitors have struggled so far in the qualification campaign despite facing their weakest opponents. In the win against Cyprus they lost Andy King to a red card and an embarrassing defeat against Andorra was avoided by Wales’s superstar, Gareth Bale.
Belgium were always looked at as group favorites, yet they are still to live up to expectations. The good news in their squad is the return of Benteke after a long lasting injury which would see him as the sole striker in Wilmots formation. Hazard and Januzaj two of Belgium’s brightest talents are in form to deliver goals and assists, while Courtois does not need any introduction, it’s no wonder why Chelsea sit comfortably at the top of Premier League table.
Wales have welcomed Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen back and both players were said to be fit in time. Simon Church, Sam Vokes and David Edwards are still out with injuries which means Williams, Collins and Emyr Huws make their return to the Wakes squad. Wales managed a 0-0 draw against Bosnia, but against them speaks the fact that they have conceded no less than 15 goals in their last seven away games, a tally which many predict to increase following the clash with Belgium.
Wales depend too much on Gareth’s Bale form, a thing easily confirmed if you look at the odds for the goalscorer market. Gareth Bale has 3.75 odds to score, Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey 6.58 and Tom Lawrence 7.00. A case to study is the selection for the Belgian team in the same market: Lukaku has 1.90 odds to score, Benteke 2.00, Origi 2.10, Hazard 2.25 and both Mertens and De Bruyne with 2.80 odds to score anytime.
Seeing as Belgium have won their last 5 home matches the 1.25 odds they got from Ladbrokes to win are more than suited for an accumulator bet. A Wales win has 11.00 odds, a draw 4.75 and over 3.5 goals 2.90. We are going to bet 7 units on the coupled market of both teams to score and Belgium to win with 3.40 odds from Ladbrokes.
Former World Cup Champions Spain look to regain some momentum in group C after finding themselves on the second place. By hosting Belarus this Saturday, Spain want to make a mark in the bid for the first place, occupied at the moment by Slovakia, the team Spain lost against back in October.
Belarus are the underdogs of the group with just one point in three games and two goals scored to six conceded. They changed management and while the federation is looking for a suitable replacement a man with knowledge in Spanish football Andrei Zygmantovich took over. Their main starts are Vitali Rodionov, Sergey Krivets and Anton Putsila, but still they are not expected to do much against the hosts.
Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas, Juan Mata and Jesus Navas did not get the call to the team and this offers the chance for Morata to finally come into the form and place at the front everyone tips him to. Juan Bernat and Spain’s goalscorer Paco Alcacer are two other youngsters who have impressed so far, and while the official reason for not calling up Mata and Navas has not been voiced everyone knows it’s because of the form of their clubs.
In the previous games between the two national teams, Spain always won in the second half which is why you could also back at 1.17 odds. Spain to win outright has 1.05 odds, Belarus 35.00 and the unlikely draw has 12.50 odds. Belarus with a +3 handicap has 1.70 odds, Spain with a -3 one 2.16 and over 1.5 goals in the first half has 1.85 goals. Spain have the potential to score a lot, but this transition period might have them vulnerable at the back, which could offer some value to the both teams to score at 3.05 odds with Unibet. We are betting 7 units on Paco Alcacer to score at least two goals at 4.50 odds.
Portugal aim to shake off their confused state of mind to get their EURO 2016 qualification campaign back on track in time for the match against Armenia. The hosts’ horrible World Cup form translated into a surprising defeat against Albania, which saw the repercussions of having Paulo Bento resign from his managerial job. Fernando Santo took over, and his aim of giving the team an identity seems to be working as Portugal mounted a last minute comeback to win against Denmark.
Armenia are placed last in group I with one point from the draw against Serbia, and see the away game against Portugal as a sense of redemption. Just as Portugal have Ronaldo to lead them on, Armenia have Borussia Dortmund’s Mkhitaryan to look to for goals and leadership. Armenia were the better side in the match against Serbia and Arzumanyan gave them the lead only to have Pizzelli miss a penalty that would have closed the game.
They are aiming for a shock against the Portuguese team, and have enough power to surprise them on counter attacks. The hosts see Postiga back in the squad; while Atletico Madrid’s Tiago received his first international call up. However the big news is that Jose Bosingwa returns to Portugal team after a four years absence which could not be more welcomed by the fans.
Portugal are placed on the third place, but is one point away from the leaders of the group, and considering their record against Armenia, another win is in the cards, with Bet365 offering them 1.20 odds to win. Armenia got 17.00 odds to win and a draw has 7.50 odds. Portugal for both halves has 1.53 odds, Armenia 41.00 and over 2.5 goals has 1.65 odds. Cristiano has 1.44 odds to score, Postiga 2.25 and Nani 2.75, while for Armenia Pizzelli has 8.50 odds to score anytime, Movsisyan 7.50, and if Mkhitaryan ends up having a better finish touch than he has at Dortmund Bet365 gives him 8.50 odds to score anytime. We are betting 7 units on both teams to score at 2.75 odds with the same bookie.
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