Bayern Munich are in an excellent shape this season, being 20 points ahead of their rivals and last year’s champions Borussia Dortmund, on the top of the Bundesliga, who failed to win against Shalke, and thus diminish the distance between them and Bayern.
Bayer Leverkusen missed the opportunity to move to the second place in the Bundesliga when they lost at Mainz, 1:0. With Toprack injured, Friedrich and Daniel Schwabb were the ones who took over his duties and, also they are the ones expected to fight Arjen Robben in the midfield area.
Bayern, on the other hand, is having a serious squad problem, with Frank Ribery being uncertain to play after his sprained ankle during this weekend’s win over Fortuna Dusseldorf. Even though statistics showed that Bayern dominated the visitors in almost every way, as it had 75% of possession, they barely managed to win with a 3:2 final score, which made Bayern’s boss say “You never win a match before kick-off.”
What is expected from Leverkusen, is to stay focused and alert on everything to be able to keep their Champions League spot, and not put themselves under more pressure at the end of the season.
If you analyze these two teams in their last 7 head to head games, 3 games ended in a draw and Bayern won 2 of them, while Leverkusen won the other two. Their latest encounter from October 28 2012 ended with Leverkusen’s 2:1 win. In 25 games played, Bayern Munich won 21 games and lost only 1, the other 3 ended in a draw. Leverkusen won 13 games out of 25, and lost 6, same number of games ended in a draw. Bayern had 17 clean sheets in 25 Bundesliga games, while Leverkusen had only 7. Another interesting fact is that Leverkusen conceded 32 goals, while Bayern achieved only 10.
My guess is that Bayern could do with another win against Leverkusen, thus putting them forward in their head to head encounters, but Leverkusen has nothing to lose, and will put up quite a fight before conceding the game.
That’s why I’m betting 7 units on Bayern at 1.67, odds taken from bwin.